News

Significant fluctuations in raw material prices, the development of integrated industry giant companies will have more advantages.

In the second half of 2022, it will be difficult for the international crude oil market supply to rise rapidly, and tight supply will remain the main theme. In addition, the risk of global crude oil trade imbalance due to geopolitical conflicts remains, and the international oil price The risk of rapid downward movement of international oil prices may not be significant. However, at the same time, there is a risk of downward adjustment of global crude oil demand expectations. On the other hand, major economies such as the U.S. and Europe are facing greater inflationary pressure, and the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed is expected to accelerate if the global economy slows down. If the global economy slows down, the demand for crude oil is expected to weaken. Based on the above considerations, we believe that in the second half of 2022, crude oil prices will be in the range of 100-120 However, we need to be alert to the rebound of the epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which may bring unexpected shocks to oil prices. Forecast Chemical product prices are expected to remain at a high historical level, but the cost transmission and profitability of different sub-sectors are expected to diverge.